Now that we have made it to Thanksgiving week, it’s a good time to start thinking about potential Super Bowl LX matchups at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara.
I’m not feeling too confident about my Lions vs. Ravens pick for the big game on Feb. 8. But at least both teams did enough last week to avoid embarrassing losses against the Giants and Jets, respectively.
It’s starting to look like we’ll get Rams vs. Patriots because both teams are atop the NFC and AFC, respectively. Just don’t expect Rams coach Sean McVay to care about being in first place with six games still left on the schedule.
It’s been a while since the Raiders and Cowboys were considered title contenders, but at least there’s a chance for Dallas. That’s not the case for Las Vegas, which might be firing more coaches in the coming weeks after dismissing offensive coordinator Chip Kelly.
Let’s discuss the Rams, Patriots, Cowboys, Raiders and Jaguars for this week’s NFL Fact or Fiction.
Raiders need to cut ties with Pete Carroll in the offseason
The Raiders have become the laughingstock of the league after two embarrassing home efforts in a six-day span.
In the aftermath of a five-game losing streak, including back-to-back blowouts against the Cowboys and Browns, coach Pete Carroll has pointed the finger at everyone except himself, firing offensive coordinator Chip Kelly on Sunday night, a few weeks after the dismissal of special teams coordinator Tom McMahon.
The 2–9 Raiders don’t have double-digit losses—yet—like the Giants and Titans, but at least those two teams have remained competitive and are at least trying to develop inexperienced players. It’s fine if a losing team would rather get higher draft picks instead of a few meaningless wins, but there needs to be some kind of developmental plan for the future, especially for a team in desperate need of more core players.
After losing by 17 points to the Cowboys at home last Monday, it got worse six days later when the Raiders fell behind double digits in the first quarter against a rookie quarterback making his starting debut for one of the worst teams in the NFL. Shedeur Sanders quickly found a rhythm against Las Vegas’s poor defense and star edge rusher Myles Garrett feasted on the poor offensive line. The Raiders allowed Geno Smith to take 10 sacks and 20 hits. Smith has been bad in his first season in Las Vegas, but no QB can have success under that type of frequent fire.
It’s a bit surprising that Carroll hasn’t fired the offensive line coach. Oh, wait, that’s his son, Brennan Carroll. The head coach’s other son, Nate Carroll, is the assistant quarterbacks coach. It seems no one with the last name Carroll is taking any blame for a disastrous 2025 for the Silver and Black.
To make matters worse, Pete Carroll has shown no interest in playing the team’s younger offensive linemen. At age 74, Carroll might be looking for the quick-fix route and not prioritizing a proper rebuild. First-year GM John Spytek needs to go with a coach willing to put in the time to develop players and be committed for the long haul because this franchise isn't close to fielding a winning roster.
My colleague Matt Verderame was spot on when he said the Raiders have made it a habit of trying to win with other teams’ heroes. It’s time this outdated franchise finds its own coaching hero because it’s not Carroll.
Manzano’s view: Fact
Rams vs. Patriots will be the Super Bowl LX matchup in Santa Clara
McVay was asked about his team taking control of the NFC’s No. 1 seed after defeating the Buccaneers on Sunday night. He responded with a question to get his point across.
“The only thing that would matter is if the season ended right now,” McVay said at his press conference. “Do you remember who was in first place with six weeks left last year? Me, either.”
To answer McVay’s question, the Chiefs and Lions were in first place in their respective conferences heading into Week 13 last year, with both teams sporting 10–1 records. The Chiefs made the Super Bowl while the Lions were bounced in the divisional round by the Commanders.
I get McVay’s point that being in first place right now doesn’t mean much, but for what it’s worth, Kansas City and Detroit did hold on to the top seeds to start the postseason. And right now it’s starting to look like the Rams (9–2) and Patriots (10–2) have ideal paths for maintaining first place in the NFC and AFC, respectively.
But I’m having doubts about the Patriots after the loss of rookie left tackle Will Campbell, who could be out weeks with a knee injury. That could hurt New England in looming showdowns with Buffalo and Baltimore next month.
Even if New England secures the No. 1 seed, it might need to go through Denver, Kansas City and/or Houston—all teams that could be potential bad matchups because of stout defenses. Now, I’m not trying to say the Patriots are pretenders, because they might be the most balanced team in the AFC, but the combination of youth and a shaky offensive line could cost them at the worst time.
As for the Rams, they’re loaded on both sides and inexperience won’t be a factor for this battle-tested team.
Manzano’s view: Fiction
Cowboys’ second-half surge won’t be enough to make the playoffs
Let’s give the Cowboys credit for revamping the interior of the defensive line. They managed to turn an area that has hindered them for years into a strength in the aftermath of the shocking Micah Parsons trade.
The trio of Osa Odighizuwa, Quinnen Williams and Kenny Clark has given this defense a much-needed spark in the past two games and now the Cowboys (5–5–1) are thinking about the playoffs again after beating the Eagles and Raiders. Dallas gained Clark in the Green Bay trade involving Parsons, and Williams arrived at the trade deadline after the blockbuster move with the Jets.
Still, it’s tough to imagine the Cowboys climbing out of the hole they dug themselves in the first half of the season. Also, the Cowboys still have difficult games against the Chiefs and Lions the next two weeks. Dallas probably could only afford to lose one game the rest of the season to have a legitimate shot at making the playoffs. It’s going to require at least 10 wins to make the postseason in the loaded NFC.
However, the Cowboys could be on the verge of being a real contender in 2026 with what they’ve done on the interior of the defensive line. They now have a surplus of draft picks to continue building out the rest of the defense. Dallas may have wasted the first half of the season with the Parsons trade, but at least there’s real hope for the future.
Manzano’s view: Fact
This will be Trevor Lawrence’s final season in Jacksonville
Lawrence hasn’t played well this season, but if the Jaguars clinch a playoff spot, that might be enough for him to stay in Jacksonville at least another season.
It’s easier to have patience when a team is winning. And, yes, Lawrence is running out of excuses now in his fifth season, but Sunday will only be his 12th game working with first-year coach Liam Coen. The results could look drastically better in Year 2 of this partnership. If things go south in a hurry and the Jaguars (7–4) miss the playoffs, which could happen with the Chiefs (6–5) and Texans (6–5) surging, then maybe there’s a real possibility of this new regime cutting ties with a player they did not draft nor sign to a massive extension.
Lawrence had a handful of blunders, including four turnovers, before the Jaguars did enough to beat the Cardinals in overtime last week. He’s completed 59.8% of his passes and thrown for 2,407 yards, 14 touchdowns and 11 interceptions this season. But Jacksonville is still in the mix for the AFC South crown with two upcoming games against the first-place Colts (8–3).
But even if the Jaguars miss the postseason, it’s going to be difficult for Coen and GM James Gladstone to give up on Lawrence’s skill set after only one season of working together.
Manzano’s view: Fiction
